* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902009 08/15/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 48 58 68 76 84 88 91 93 92 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 48 58 68 76 84 88 91 93 92 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 51 60 68 76 81 85 90 91 SHEAR (KT) 11 11 13 13 12 11 16 17 12 13 8 10 15 SHEAR DIR 69 56 56 62 65 50 60 48 29 11 307 322 288 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 132 132 132 131 127 127 130 133 137 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 133 133 133 133 128 125 128 131 135 142 140 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.3 -52.3 -51.4 -51.9 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 73 69 68 68 69 67 67 62 67 65 62 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 16 17 17 18 19 20 22 24 24 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 67 67 67 75 77 80 85 81 86 67 61 67 69 200 MB DIV 72 33 13 31 55 63 59 37 37 54 50 68 50 LAND (KM) 1603 1747 1763 1723 1697 1472 1255 1123 1064 1090 959 886 622 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.5 14.2 15.4 16.8 18.6 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 32.0 33.4 34.8 36.3 37.7 40.9 44.1 47.0 49.5 52.1 54.6 57.3 60.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 16 15 14 13 14 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 10 10 11 11 11 14 22 37 46 63 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 19. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 28. 38. 46. 54. 58. 61. 63. 62. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 08/15/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)