* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL032009 08/15/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 55 63 72 81 86 88 90 90 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 55 63 72 81 86 88 90 90 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 48 56 64 73 81 88 92 93 SHEAR (KT) 17 14 14 13 11 14 12 8 12 3 13 11 13 SHEAR DIR 60 50 64 57 41 46 31 62 15 323 340 317 314 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.1 27.0 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 131 133 134 133 127 126 131 135 140 144 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 132 134 136 134 126 126 130 134 140 143 142 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 69 71 70 71 73 74 70 66 64 62 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 20 23 24 25 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 61 59 63 66 74 78 83 72 73 71 65 71 56 200 MB DIV 0 -17 -4 26 24 78 44 69 54 59 62 72 23 LAND (KM) 1748 1703 1652 1622 1599 1386 1246 1147 1095 1031 856 686 396 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.5 12.0 12.7 13.7 14.7 15.7 16.7 18.2 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 33.3 34.6 35.9 37.3 38.7 41.5 44.1 46.9 49.9 52.9 55.9 59.2 62.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 17 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 12 12 13 13 11 12 24 40 51 60 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 33. 42. 51. 56. 58. 60. 60. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 INVEST 08/15/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)