* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/15/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 105 99 88 72 56 45 35 29 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 110 109 105 99 88 72 56 45 35 29 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 110 107 100 91 84 70 59 51 44 38 32 28 25 SHEAR (KT) 5 7 4 10 17 18 22 31 28 35 25 32 30 SHEAR DIR 305 301 251 231 241 234 236 216 219 199 189 188 196 SST (C) 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 115 113 111 108 107 106 107 108 108 111 114 118 123 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 62 60 62 63 56 60 57 54 49 45 41 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 13 13 11 12 9 10 9 10 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 88 93 99 108 97 80 55 55 31 12 -24 -47 -50 200 MB DIV 21 27 34 51 38 27 31 21 26 19 25 0 -3 LAND (KM) 2055 2155 2053 1926 1799 1529 1290 1050 856 710 620 602 645 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.3 24.4 25.5 26.7 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.9 135.2 136.4 137.6 140.2 142.6 145.2 147.6 150.2 152.7 155.7 159.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -14. -20. -33. -43. -51. -58. -62. -64. -66. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -20. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -4. -4. -5. -4. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -11. -22. -38. -54. -65. -75. -81. -90. -97.-102. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/15/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 0.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/15/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY