* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/15/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 49 57 65 75 80 84 86 89 89 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 49 57 65 75 80 84 86 89 89 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 44 47 54 60 68 76 83 87 89 89 SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 16 17 19 15 15 12 16 14 10 9 SHEAR DIR 65 82 71 53 46 47 51 29 17 324 344 331 330 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 133 135 137 132 128 131 135 139 143 143 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 134 138 139 133 129 133 137 140 142 140 139 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.4 -52.5 -51.6 -52.1 -51.3 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 73 72 71 73 75 68 67 60 61 59 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 18 18 19 20 23 22 24 24 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 57 55 50 61 65 77 73 94 89 93 87 79 67 200 MB DIV -18 0 22 5 32 38 58 62 64 33 72 58 43 LAND (KM) 1691 1632 1586 1574 1470 1282 1135 1016 993 830 747 464 199 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.2 11.3 12.0 12.5 13.3 14.4 15.7 17.0 18.3 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 34.5 35.9 37.2 38.6 40.0 42.8 45.5 48.6 51.9 55.2 58.3 61.3 64.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 16 17 17 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 12 15 12 15 21 35 48 54 57 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 22. 30. 40. 45. 49. 51. 54. 54. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/15/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%)