* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/15/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 84 76 67 56 47 43 31 28 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 90 84 76 67 56 47 43 31 28 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 90 83 77 71 60 52 44 39 33 29 25 21 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 11 17 20 24 27 33 31 38 37 42 39 SHEAR DIR 295 238 237 246 247 235 229 226 206 202 187 187 184 SST (C) 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.3 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.3 24.5 24.9 25.1 25.6 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 114 112 110 107 105 107 108 107 109 113 115 121 127 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.9 -54.3 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 58 59 61 59 59 52 47 49 51 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 12 11 11 11 13 9 11 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 99 102 108 93 82 78 44 54 14 -5 -36 -45 -62 200 MB DIV 28 28 34 25 21 20 38 46 13 12 -1 1 26 LAND (KM) 2161 2054 1916 1784 1653 1398 1150 938 779 659 626 622 762 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.4 21.2 22.2 23.3 24.3 25.3 26.3 27.5 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 133.9 135.2 136.5 137.8 139.0 141.5 144.1 146.7 149.2 151.8 154.2 157.3 160.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -10. -15. -24. -31. -38. -44. -47. -49. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -20. -25. -31. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. 1. -4. -1. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -19. -27. -39. -48. -52. -64. -67. -79. -87. -93. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/15/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/15/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY