* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/16/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 50 58 66 77 83 87 88 90 90 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 50 58 66 77 83 87 88 90 90 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 47 53 60 68 78 85 90 90 89 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 13 12 17 14 11 16 7 16 10 15 7 SHEAR DIR 76 67 48 38 40 33 54 28 13 344 325 333 283 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.2 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 134 136 134 129 127 132 136 142 143 142 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 136 138 136 130 127 132 136 142 141 137 138 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 73 70 71 62 62 53 59 55 56 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 18 18 18 19 20 24 23 25 24 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 58 53 60 61 68 72 78 99 93 105 95 54 61 200 MB DIV 5 27 13 35 73 19 86 47 62 30 41 30 26 LAND (KM) 1631 1607 1594 1481 1365 1202 1103 1019 926 755 666 381 190 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.7 12.5 13.6 14.2 14.8 16.0 18.0 19.2 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 35.9 37.3 38.6 40.1 41.5 44.5 47.5 50.5 53.5 56.5 59.4 62.2 64.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 12 14 12 11 14 27 43 55 56 53 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 4. 6. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 31. 42. 48. 52. 53. 55. 55. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/16/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/16/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED