* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912009 08/16/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 40 49 58 63 66 70 72 76 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 40 34 29 28 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 32 28 27 27 27 27 28 SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 3 3 2 6 3 15 19 17 9 21 SHEAR DIR 290 333 106 191 199 59 214 262 212 228 270 295 246 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.2 27.9 26.4 24.0 22.7 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 171 171 169 167 154 134 117 99 97 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 160 161 157 152 147 143 130 113 99 87 91 100 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 11 12 12 9 13 9 13 8 14 5 10 700-500 MB RH 62 56 57 58 60 56 53 51 52 51 49 52 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -86 -87 -78 -80 -110 -86 -78 -67 -79 -68 -5 50 200 MB DIV 22 0 -2 4 -3 -6 8 21 26 -7 -16 32 59 LAND (KM) 127 168 239 241 236 48 -29 -93 -200 -323 -536 -689 -475 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.5 27.1 27.6 28.1 29.0 29.9 30.6 31.6 32.6 34.5 36.6 39.2 LONG(DEG W) 83.1 84.1 85.1 86.1 87.0 88.8 90.6 92.2 93.5 94.6 94.9 90.5 80.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 13 30 40 HEAT CONTENT 30 21 49 46 36 46 34 30 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. 0. 4. 11. 18. 22. 26. 28. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 14. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 33. 38. 41. 45. 47. 51. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912009 INVEST 08/16/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912009 INVEST 08/16/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY