* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANA AL022009 08/16/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 45 49 54 56 59 63 69 72 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 45 49 38 36 31 37 42 45 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 37 38 41 47 38 36 31 36 40 48 SHEAR (KT) 12 9 1 8 8 3 9 12 18 10 10 5 9 SHEAR DIR 237 259 191 197 247 107 240 206 255 248 248 150 191 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 29.1 29.6 30.0 30.1 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 142 144 144 144 147 149 156 164 171 172 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 144 147 147 146 150 150 154 157 159 160 162 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 13 13 700-500 MB RH 47 46 44 44 43 47 43 43 43 42 42 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 30 27 18 6 -2 -22 -24 -57 -86 -84 -88 -111 200 MB DIV -6 0 3 8 25 8 -6 5 10 0 -8 1 1 LAND (KM) 969 829 706 620 594 274 10 -73 -33 -32 48 170 327 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.5 16.0 17.0 18.0 18.9 20.1 21.6 23.4 24.6 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 52.9 54.5 56.1 57.9 59.7 63.5 67.3 71.4 75.3 78.3 80.2 82.7 85.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 18 18 19 20 20 17 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 39 45 53 62 50 59 57 83 95 114 79 68 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 14. 19. 21. 24. 28. 34. 37. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 ANA 08/16/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 ANA 08/16/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY