* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/16/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 50 54 64 74 83 91 94 94 94 92 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 50 54 64 74 83 91 94 94 94 92 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 53 61 70 79 87 93 97 94 88 SHEAR (KT) 9 12 11 11 9 6 6 5 6 11 13 10 16 SHEAR DIR 88 44 44 45 69 49 20 39 335 343 285 313 290 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.8 27.0 27.4 27.7 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 134 131 129 124 126 130 134 142 145 142 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 136 131 128 123 125 126 131 143 143 133 130 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.3 -52.0 -52.4 -51.4 -52.3 -51.5 -51.6 -50.9 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 70 70 72 73 68 64 59 61 63 56 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 17 16 17 19 21 22 24 25 25 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 49 58 60 63 65 65 78 78 76 85 84 88 77 200 MB DIV 20 15 28 56 25 65 56 70 39 56 25 60 17 LAND (KM) 1633 1635 1550 1466 1391 1287 1214 1168 1037 894 644 450 397 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.7 15.0 15.7 16.1 17.3 19.5 20.9 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 36.6 38.1 39.6 40.9 42.1 44.8 48.0 50.7 53.1 56.1 59.7 62.4 64.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 14 13 13 15 15 12 14 18 18 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 11 9 8 10 28 41 51 54 44 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 34. 43. 51. 54. 54. 54. 52. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/16/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/16/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY