* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/16/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 77 69 61 54 45 44 34 25 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 77 69 61 54 45 44 34 25 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 78 72 65 60 51 45 40 35 30 25 21 19 SHEAR (KT) 9 15 22 20 25 23 30 35 40 43 41 31 13 SHEAR DIR 244 254 250 254 253 240 218 202 190 175 182 169 137 SST (C) 24.6 24.3 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.7 26.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 110 107 105 106 107 108 108 110 113 116 122 127 128 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.8 -54.2 -55.1 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 59 62 56 54 46 46 48 49 56 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 13 16 13 10 9 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 104 90 78 84 81 51 52 11 -11 -36 -34 -31 -56 200 MB DIV 23 6 15 16 26 41 54 39 6 18 9 26 -8 LAND (KM) 1895 1757 1622 1493 1367 1100 874 739 671 662 686 826 1046 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.2 22.2 23.3 24.5 25.8 27.0 28.3 29.5 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 136.7 138.0 139.3 140.6 141.8 144.6 147.4 149.9 152.3 155.0 158.2 161.2 163.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 13 14 14 13 13 14 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -25. -31. -35. -37. -38. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -16. -20. -27. -33. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -24. -31. -40. -41. -51. -60. -69. -74. -79. -82. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/16/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/16/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY