* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANA AL022009 08/16/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 37 39 45 51 57 59 64 70 76 79 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 37 39 45 51 50 47 46 46 52 55 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 37 38 42 47 46 45 49 44 51 60 SHEAR (KT) 11 3 7 8 5 10 9 16 14 13 7 5 4 SHEAR DIR 257 254 209 252 341 180 272 226 266 223 300 200 260 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 29.0 29.7 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 144 145 144 147 148 155 167 171 169 171 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 145 148 150 148 148 149 158 168 162 154 155 154 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 13 13 14 12 700-500 MB RH 44 45 44 45 46 43 45 42 45 43 43 41 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 26 18 7 -7 -5 -15 -36 -71 -65 -96 -94 -103 200 MB DIV -3 0 7 26 11 4 11 -2 18 -12 -4 -18 0 LAND (KM) 793 667 579 560 414 96 47 65 11 -11 54 201 331 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.3 17.1 17.9 19.1 20.6 22.1 23.5 24.5 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 54.8 56.6 58.3 60.4 62.4 66.4 69.8 73.7 77.9 81.0 82.6 84.2 85.6 STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 19 20 20 18 18 20 19 13 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 44 57 62 55 60 53 70 75 49 96 99 97 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 24. 29. 35. 41. 44. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 ANA 08/16/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 ANA 08/16/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY