* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/16/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 63 69 77 85 93 98 99 97 95 91 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 63 69 77 85 93 98 99 97 95 91 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 62 67 71 78 85 91 96 98 97 93 87 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 8 7 8 8 3 10 7 18 15 14 SHEAR DIR 33 28 27 49 34 44 30 52 331 280 307 281 296 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.8 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 131 129 126 124 127 131 136 143 144 143 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 131 129 125 122 125 128 132 138 139 137 135 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 10 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 68 69 71 72 69 67 64 61 59 56 60 59 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 17 17 20 21 23 23 25 26 27 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 60 63 67 69 74 77 89 105 100 96 97 102 106 200 MB DIV 12 23 38 26 34 66 55 57 49 49 35 30 38 LAND (KM) 1664 1618 1524 1442 1372 1253 1201 1203 1052 938 674 494 521 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.8 13.2 14.1 15.1 16.2 17.4 18.7 19.9 21.4 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 37.7 39.0 40.2 41.6 42.9 45.8 48.5 51.3 54.0 56.8 59.5 62.3 65.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 15 14 15 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 9 8 8 14 32 43 61 48 43 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 19. 27. 35. 43. 48. 49. 47. 45. 41. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/16/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/16/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY