* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042009 08/16/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 45 47 49 46 44 40 39 37 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 31 29 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 31 29 27 27 27 28 29 30 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 13 11 16 20 16 17 18 19 34 35 47 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 285 307 314 311 295 312 277 270 278 275 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.0 29.5 29.1 28.4 26.2 24.6 23.9 23.3 22.3 21.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 170 161 154 143 115 102 98 95 90 85 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 151 141 133 122 98 87 84 83 80 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.7 -53.4 -54.1 -53.9 -55.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 9 7 12 5 11 3 7 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 53 50 54 55 56 58 55 59 67 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -89 -80 -83 -117 -117 -94 -100 -101 -136 -98 -50 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 5 6 6 -9 17 38 29 -3 42 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 143 70 33 -52 -148 -367 -567 -768 -751 -528 -354 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.1 30.0 31.0 31.9 34.0 35.8 37.6 39.4 41.1 42.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.2 85.1 86.0 86.7 87.3 87.7 87.7 86.2 84.1 80.9 77.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 10 9 11 14 16 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 18 8 22 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 15. 17. 19. 16. 14. 10. 9. 7. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042009 FOUR 08/16/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042009 FOUR 08/16/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY