* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/16/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 77 69 62 54 50 44 36 27 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 77 69 62 54 50 44 36 27 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 78 72 67 62 53 47 41 35 30 25 21 19 SHEAR (KT) 12 19 18 23 23 22 30 44 46 43 45 34 19 SHEAR DIR 254 247 254 251 253 226 210 191 187 181 170 160 148 SST (C) 24.3 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.6 26.1 26.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 107 105 107 108 108 108 109 113 116 121 126 125 120 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.9 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 62 61 55 52 51 51 49 53 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 13 11 14 14 13 11 11 9 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 92 81 85 80 62 55 18 1 -27 -28 -44 -61 -100 200 MB DIV 0 13 8 17 32 69 61 30 5 29 24 27 1 LAND (KM) 1758 1616 1477 1341 1208 969 781 671 665 696 826 1031 1266 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.7 23.8 25.2 26.7 28.2 29.6 31.0 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 138.0 139.4 140.7 142.1 143.4 146.1 148.8 151.5 154.3 157.3 160.4 162.9 165.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -25. -30. -34. -36. -37. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -18. -24. -30. -37. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -23. -31. -35. -41. -49. -58. -65. -74. -79. -86. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/16/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/16/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY