* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANA AL022009 08/16/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 29 32 36 42 47 52 57 66 72 78 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 32 36 39 35 43 36 50 56 61 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 29 31 33 30 38 36 45 54 64 SHEAR (KT) 9 15 13 6 3 13 16 18 7 10 5 6 3 SHEAR DIR 258 233 259 303 164 229 223 241 224 239 139 240 192 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 144 146 149 155 161 170 171 171 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 149 149 148 150 152 155 158 164 162 156 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 46 46 45 46 48 44 47 47 48 45 47 43 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 31 16 8 8 -3 -13 -48 -58 -74 -79 -103 -92 200 MB DIV 2 10 18 21 23 2 24 15 4 -11 8 0 -16 LAND (KM) 572 511 511 311 157 69 56 -10 4 -6 206 368 425 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.7 19.0 20.3 21.7 22.9 24.1 25.1 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 57.8 59.8 61.8 63.8 65.7 69.8 73.6 77.0 80.0 82.7 85.2 86.4 86.6 STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 20 19 20 20 18 16 15 13 10 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 70 56 64 66 45 72 76 35 109 1 80 76 129 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 27. 36. 42. 48. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 ANA 08/16/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 ANA 08/16/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY