* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/16/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 73 79 89 96 103 107 107 106 103 103 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 73 79 89 96 103 107 107 106 103 103 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 68 73 78 86 92 98 102 101 97 92 88 SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 6 9 4 7 6 7 17 11 13 11 SHEAR DIR 33 53 63 45 53 43 30 299 329 301 310 270 221 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.6 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 127 125 124 125 128 133 140 144 144 142 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 128 126 124 122 122 125 130 136 137 136 132 131 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -51.1 -52.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 67 69 60 61 56 55 55 61 62 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 19 20 22 24 24 26 27 28 27 31 850 MB ENV VOR 67 68 64 62 63 74 85 97 89 70 62 62 77 200 MB DIV 34 53 31 42 97 59 51 66 101 53 67 58 103 LAND (KM) 1618 1531 1453 1385 1326 1243 1214 1129 1037 838 675 645 747 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.6 14.0 15.0 15.9 17.0 18.4 19.9 21.5 23.3 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 39.2 40.5 41.8 43.2 44.6 47.4 50.0 52.7 55.4 57.9 60.2 62.5 64.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 7 6 8 26 38 46 62 36 38 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 24. 34. 41. 48. 52. 52. 51. 48. 48. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/16/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/16/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY