* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CLAUDETTE AL042009 08/16/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 56 59 62 62 59 54 48 43 39 35 V (KT) LAND 45 50 41 35 31 28 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 43 36 32 28 27 28 29 30 30 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 12 16 19 18 18 18 17 38 44 41 32 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 285 310 315 330 307 303 245 248 252 275 289 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.5 29.1 28.4 27.3 25.1 23.3 22.3 22.3 22.5 20.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 161 154 143 128 106 93 88 89 91 84 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 140 133 122 109 90 80 77 78 80 75 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -54.7 -54.7 -55.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 10 8 10 7 8 3 6 0 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 50 53 51 53 57 51 55 61 66 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -76 -115 -106 -89 -92 -86 -156 -92 -62 -19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 16 -5 0 22 40 11 -3 21 45 28 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 70 19 -56 -163 -246 -459 -649 -844 -908 -699 -505 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 30.1 31.0 32.0 32.9 34.8 36.5 38.3 39.9 41.5 43.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.1 85.8 86.5 87.1 87.7 88.6 88.9 87.8 85.9 82.9 79.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 9 9 10 12 15 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 6 23 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 14. 17. 17. 14. 9. 3. -2. -6. -10. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042009 CLAUDETTE 08/16/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042009 CLAUDETTE 08/16/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY