* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANA AL022009 08/17/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 29 33 38 43 50 56 65 71 77 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 29 29 36 38 36 43 52 57 63 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 28 26 31 32 30 34 42 52 63 SHEAR (KT) 14 13 10 5 11 12 16 11 6 6 3 2 13 SHEAR DIR 224 245 267 223 209 238 231 260 219 1 204 172 191 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 147 147 150 156 168 171 170 168 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 149 148 151 150 150 154 165 162 155 150 150 156 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 12 13 12 13 12 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 43 46 45 46 44 47 47 48 46 48 45 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 17 4 -2 -9 0 -26 -72 -75 -97 -98 -92 -67 200 MB DIV 14 17 3 21 1 3 1 10 -22 -4 -11 -16 -1 LAND (KM) 533 470 268 127 100 -30 33 9 -23 69 194 331 417 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.4 18.4 19.5 20.9 22.4 23.4 23.9 24.6 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 60.0 62.1 64.1 66.1 68.1 71.9 75.3 78.5 81.4 83.7 85.3 86.5 87.5 STM SPEED (KT) 23 20 20 20 19 18 17 16 13 10 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 53 64 64 48 64 90 79 25 113 119 80 46 127 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 8. 13. 20. 26. 35. 41. 47. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 ANA 08/17/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 ANA 08/17/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY