* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/17/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 65 71 75 85 94 101 106 105 105 102 100 V (KT) LAND 55 59 65 71 75 85 94 101 106 105 105 102 100 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 62 67 71 80 88 96 102 103 100 94 89 SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 9 9 6 3 6 8 14 10 18 20 SHEAR DIR 348 22 58 74 48 39 90 4 343 320 250 261 233 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 125 124 122 124 127 132 137 142 144 143 144 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 124 122 120 121 124 128 132 137 138 135 133 135 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -51.2 -52.1 -52.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.5 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 66 68 68 68 68 60 55 59 54 53 56 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 20 20 21 24 25 26 26 26 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 76 69 63 63 77 77 94 98 92 68 73 51 35 200 MB DIV 56 48 56 101 73 50 67 59 58 24 35 38 4 LAND (KM) 1532 1452 1387 1326 1273 1228 1186 1069 933 742 681 799 983 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.7 16.8 18.0 19.4 21.2 23.3 25.5 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 40.8 42.3 43.7 45.1 46.5 49.2 51.9 54.4 56.9 59.3 61.9 64.2 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 6 6 7 19 36 43 61 37 39 33 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 20. 30. 39. 46. 51. 50. 50. 47. 45. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/17/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/17/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY