* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CLAUDETTE AL042009 08/17/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 55 58 60 59 55 52 50 48 45 42 V (KT) LAND 45 41 36 32 30 28 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 37 32 30 28 27 28 29 30 30 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 14 18 12 15 20 18 29 43 44 10 40 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 318 328 288 300 298 252 268 267 286 217 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.2 28.6 27.8 26.7 24.7 23.0 22.2 22.3 22.4 20.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 155 146 134 121 102 91 88 89 91 84 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 134 125 114 103 87 79 77 78 80 75 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.5 -53.7 -54.7 -55.6 -55.6 -52.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 8 10 12 6 10 2 8 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 55 55 56 59 52 48 55 57 63 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -78 -125 -120 -96 -102 -93 -103 -137 -31 77 112 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 0 10 8 16 74 10 0 59 47 87 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 35 -23 -127 -202 -300 -496 -682 -867 -893 -680 -497 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.7 31.6 32.5 33.4 35.1 36.8 38.5 40.1 41.6 43.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.8 86.5 87.1 87.7 88.2 88.9 88.9 87.7 85.7 82.6 78.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 10 12 15 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 27 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 14. 10. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042009 CLAUDETTE 08/17/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042009 CLAUDETTE 08/17/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY