* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/17/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 67 59 53 48 42 35 30 26 30 29 26 22 V (KT) LAND 75 67 59 53 48 42 35 30 26 30 29 26 22 V (KT) LGE mod 75 69 64 59 54 46 39 33 28 25 23 22 21 SHEAR (KT) 21 25 26 30 29 40 42 39 21 6 17 22 15 SHEAR DIR 248 246 255 243 227 219 185 162 147 358 334 357 335 SST (C) 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.5 24.4 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.9 26.1 26.0 25.0 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 107 108 108 110 109 110 114 118 125 126 124 114 96 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.6 -55.6 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 58 60 57 57 55 58 54 50 52 49 53 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 10 11 12 14 13 14 14 16 16 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 89 83 70 64 58 39 16 -14 -35 -54 -56 -67 -99 200 MB DIV 3 4 22 46 65 61 35 0 21 0 12 -26 7 LAND (KM) 1507 1369 1234 1088 952 747 663 675 789 995 1203 1448 1703 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.8 25.5 27.3 29.3 30.8 31.9 33.2 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 140.4 141.8 143.1 144.7 146.2 149.2 152.0 155.4 159.1 162.4 165.0 167.5 169.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 16 15 15 16 19 18 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -21. -23. -24. -25. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -15. -20. -26. -28. -28. -29. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -22. -27. -33. -40. -45. -49. -45. -46. -49. -53. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/17/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/17/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY