* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANA AL022009 08/17/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 43 51 60 65 71 78 82 85 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 30 31 40 49 55 61 67 72 74 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 29 33 35 40 48 58 69 80 88 SHEAR (KT) 17 10 4 12 11 7 5 8 5 7 8 17 20 SHEAR DIR 248 273 200 207 217 223 258 71 106 93 192 168 205 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 29.0 29.5 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.4 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 148 149 155 162 170 171 170 170 170 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 151 152 151 151 153 155 158 155 154 154 152 143 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 11 700-500 MB RH 45 46 44 41 42 45 46 48 44 46 45 49 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -8 -14 -25 -21 -45 -76 -72 -108 -105 -122 -84 -66 200 MB DIV 10 11 17 -6 -13 16 15 -12 -12 4 5 2 0 LAND (KM) 385 166 48 19 -65 -13 11 55 142 208 254 251 197 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.2 18.9 20.5 22.1 23.5 24.6 25.6 26.5 27.5 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 62.8 64.9 67.0 69.1 71.1 74.9 77.9 80.4 82.4 83.9 85.0 86.0 87.0 STM SPEED (KT) 23 21 21 21 20 18 15 12 10 8 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 61 55 58 64 84 0 3 102 65 51 84 48 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 24 CX,CY: -22/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 21. 30. 35. 41. 48. 52. 55. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 ANA 08/17/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 ANA 08/17/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY