* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/17/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 76 81 86 96 103 108 111 112 111 111 106 V (KT) LAND 65 70 76 81 86 96 103 108 111 112 111 111 106 V (KT) LGE mod 65 70 75 80 84 91 97 103 107 105 100 96 92 SHEAR (KT) 2 5 8 11 8 8 8 9 12 7 20 18 26 SHEAR DIR 51 15 57 48 13 59 352 13 314 286 267 228 228 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 123 125 127 131 136 142 144 143 143 149 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 122 122 122 124 128 132 138 138 134 133 136 136 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -51.3 -51.5 -50.6 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 64 60 56 56 56 52 53 53 50 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 19 19 20 23 23 24 23 25 27 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 71 65 64 75 81 88 107 113 105 92 85 91 43 200 MB DIV 65 70 102 95 69 45 59 85 51 55 27 70 -1 LAND (KM) 1372 1313 1254 1213 1188 1179 1021 949 733 631 697 888 1054 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 16.2 17.2 18.7 20.5 22.4 24.4 26.7 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 43.4 44.8 46.2 47.6 49.0 51.6 54.2 56.7 59.1 61.5 63.7 65.7 67.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 14 14 14 13 14 14 15 14 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 8 9 18 34 44 60 42 39 33 34 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 31. 38. 43. 46. 47. 46. 46. 41. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/17/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/17/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED