* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CLAUDETTE AL042009 08/17/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 40 41 41 43 43 41 40 40 40 39 37 V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 29 28 27 27 29 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 32 29 28 27 27 29 29 30 30 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 21 11 16 21 30 18 36 33 40 26 33 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 315 318 278 291 297 244 249 255 256 257 235 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.3 27.1 26.0 23.7 22.0 21.7 21.6 20.9 19.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 150 141 125 114 96 87 86 86 84 80 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 128 120 107 97 83 76 76 77 76 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.7 -54.5 -53.8 -53.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 11 12 8 8 4 7 1 4 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 55 56 58 52 59 51 51 61 62 64 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 4 1 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -116 -125 -93 -98 -99 -75 -132 -70 0 52 95 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 7 21 29 55 9 15 33 33 28 47 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -2 -87 -144 -252 -363 -599 -793 -988 -850 -656 -507 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.5 31.3 32.0 33.0 33.9 36.0 37.8 39.6 41.3 42.9 44.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.7 87.4 88.0 88.4 88.8 89.2 88.9 87.3 84.9 81.3 77.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 9 10 12 14 17 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 11 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042009 CLAUDETTE 08/17/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042009 CLAUDETTE 08/17/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED