* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANA AL022009 08/17/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 39 45 53 61 67 72 79 83 84 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 29 33 40 48 56 61 67 73 77 54 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 28 31 35 40 48 57 68 78 87 61 SHEAR (KT) 15 7 12 12 9 4 6 7 7 5 9 25 22 SHEAR DIR 269 244 213 220 238 178 349 47 54 123 203 193 232 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 151 153 155 165 168 171 170 169 169 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 159 156 154 154 149 153 153 151 150 146 141 132 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 14 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 12 12 7 700-500 MB RH 47 45 41 44 49 46 49 47 49 50 51 44 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 4 4 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -11 -25 -28 -42 -66 -76 -93 -124 -110 -87 -91 -56 200 MB DIV 21 35 9 -9 10 -13 -6 -21 0 1 -1 19 -20 LAND (KM) 142 47 10 -61 51 55 87 38 99 117 146 38 -49 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.3 20.2 22.0 23.4 24.8 26.1 27.4 28.5 29.5 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 65.2 67.4 69.5 71.6 73.6 76.9 79.3 81.3 82.9 83.9 84.3 84.6 84.7 STM SPEED (KT) 24 22 22 22 20 15 12 11 9 7 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 52 59 68 75 67 69 86 36 24 25 13 6 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 26 CX,CY: -24/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 23. 31. 37. 42. 49. 53. 54. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 ANA 08/17/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 ANA 08/17/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY