* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/17/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 86 91 95 98 103 107 112 111 110 107 103 98 V (KT) LAND 80 86 91 95 98 103 107 112 111 110 107 103 98 V (KT) LGE mod 80 88 93 96 98 101 103 106 107 104 98 95 90 SHEAR (KT) 4 6 8 7 14 10 9 5 15 10 13 21 22 SHEAR DIR 15 68 77 25 22 45 9 320 317 296 273 228 245 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 129 130 133 135 139 146 149 149 152 156 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 126 127 130 132 135 141 142 141 140 140 131 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 68 70 70 68 65 61 63 58 60 61 57 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 19 21 22 23 24 24 26 26 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 61 56 64 67 66 79 92 92 71 71 46 21 14 200 MB DIV 54 79 90 45 42 72 39 66 48 70 77 13 45 LAND (KM) 1318 1257 1209 1181 1156 1124 1040 903 691 687 882 1099 990 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.3 16.5 17.9 19.5 21.3 23.5 26.2 28.7 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 44.6 46.0 47.3 48.6 49.9 52.4 54.7 57.2 59.9 62.1 63.9 65.4 66.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 10 15 26 36 44 62 37 39 32 23 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 6. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 18. 23. 27. 32. 31. 30. 27. 23. 18. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/17/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/17/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY