* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANA AL022009 08/17/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 47 56 60 63 68 73 78 80 V (KT) LAND 30 28 28 32 35 42 51 55 58 63 55 41 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 31 32 35 39 45 51 56 52 39 31 SHEAR (KT) 11 15 14 13 8 7 15 11 15 0 9 15 27 SHEAR DIR 249 223 230 245 253 291 354 2 21 40 146 195 200 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.4 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 154 153 160 166 169 169 168 167 161 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 157 155 156 150 150 152 150 145 139 139 137 125 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 8 700-500 MB RH 46 44 47 49 49 49 50 48 50 47 49 44 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -29 -30 -48 -65 -88 -98 -124 -120 -129 -77 -55 -23 200 MB DIV 32 5 2 1 17 0 -5 -12 13 0 12 14 10 LAND (KM) 37 -5 -55 47 45 73 122 33 14 11 -5 -17 -128 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.5 19.3 20.3 21.3 22.8 24.2 25.6 26.9 27.7 27.9 29.0 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 67.0 69.2 71.4 73.4 75.3 78.0 80.2 81.7 82.6 82.8 82.6 82.6 82.8 STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 22 21 18 13 11 9 5 2 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 58 65 76 59 50 39 99 2 6 5 2 0 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 21 CX,CY: -19/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 26. 30. 33. 38. 43. 48. 50. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 ANA 08/17/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 ANA 08/17/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY