* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/17/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 89 92 95 101 105 105 105 103 102 101 98 V (KT) LAND 80 85 89 92 95 101 105 105 105 103 102 101 98 V (KT) LGE mod 80 86 90 93 96 100 102 104 102 97 92 90 87 SHEAR (KT) 8 8 10 14 14 8 6 23 12 17 9 15 7 SHEAR DIR 57 69 41 35 64 355 357 302 303 274 250 253 180 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 130 133 134 138 144 147 149 149 155 155 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 127 129 131 134 139 141 140 138 142 139 121 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.1 -51.5 -50.7 -51.7 -50.8 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 70 70 65 65 62 59 62 62 65 64 68 58 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 19 21 21 23 24 25 25 25 26 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 58 68 70 66 67 84 85 82 82 58 60 13 18 200 MB DIV 80 92 52 41 64 30 56 28 108 74 94 52 45 LAND (KM) 1267 1221 1192 1180 1184 1068 1002 776 683 765 988 1107 892 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.0 17.3 18.8 20.6 22.6 24.8 27.3 30.1 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 46.0 47.4 48.7 50.0 51.2 53.7 56.2 58.7 61.0 63.0 64.6 65.9 66.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 14 14 15 14 15 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 16 27 31 41 54 40 36 31 33 16 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 21. 25. 25. 25. 23. 22. 21. 18. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/17/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/17/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY