* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/17/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 37 35 32 28 25 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 37 35 32 28 25 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 39 34 30 27 22 18 17 16 17 17 16 17 SHEAR (KT) 36 40 43 45 52 50 19 4 23 27 26 22 24 SHEAR DIR 235 233 228 220 205 194 161 17 9 358 1 340 359 SST (C) 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.5 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 112 113 113 114 116 120 126 131 136 137 138 141 142 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -54.0 -54.8 -55.1 -55.4 -55.7 -56.1 -56.2 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 59 55 57 58 55 57 52 47 47 45 49 50 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 15 14 13 15 14 15 15 15 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 51 58 59 43 29 13 -14 -11 -32 -30 -33 -33 -13 200 MB DIV 36 70 77 58 44 15 -14 3 -16 -16 -1 -1 -21 LAND (KM) 1032 897 777 690 625 598 586 688 894 1109 1278 1509 1769 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.5 23.0 23.8 24.5 26.1 27.3 28.2 28.8 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 145.2 146.8 148.3 149.9 151.4 154.4 157.8 161.3 164.7 167.8 170.3 173.1 176.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 16 20 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -17. -19. -23. -28. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -29. -36. -37. -36. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/17/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/17/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY