* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/18/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 91 94 97 101 105 104 106 103 102 103 99 V (KT) LAND 85 88 91 94 97 101 105 104 106 103 102 103 99 V (KT) LGE mod 85 88 91 93 96 100 103 103 100 96 93 91 86 SHEAR (KT) 6 8 12 11 9 14 8 16 11 11 17 12 16 SHEAR DIR 60 40 33 69 40 360 306 307 272 267 236 233 188 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.2 28.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 133 134 137 141 147 148 149 152 157 149 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 130 130 133 137 143 140 139 140 144 134 116 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.0 -51.7 -51.1 -51.2 -50.6 -51.0 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 68 64 64 61 59 61 59 62 65 64 58 53 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 20 20 21 22 24 24 25 24 26 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 69 66 62 60 70 77 87 72 75 54 45 18 54 200 MB DIV 66 42 53 76 60 38 66 44 76 41 39 56 49 LAND (KM) 1213 1190 1171 1181 1101 1008 832 675 681 832 1020 914 731 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.2 16.7 18.0 19.6 21.5 23.5 25.8 28.2 31.3 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 47.6 49.0 50.3 51.6 52.8 55.3 57.9 60.2 62.2 64.2 66.1 67.4 67.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 14 15 14 14 15 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 10 18 27 33 38 47 66 37 38 32 31 19 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 4. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 20. 19. 21. 18. 17. 18. 14. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/18/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/18/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY