* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/18/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 33 32 31 30 28 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 33 32 31 30 28 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 32 29 26 22 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 SHEAR (KT) 41 43 49 49 50 28 14 17 19 24 17 22 27 SHEAR DIR 230 230 222 214 204 182 115 11 355 353 344 359 351 SST (C) 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.2 25.4 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.1 27.1 26.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 113 113 114 117 119 124 130 135 137 136 136 132 120 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -55.1 -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 -55.4 -55.7 -55.9 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 56 59 61 60 61 55 49 47 47 46 49 53 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 13 12 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 35 18 9 0 -1 -17 -14 -36 -63 -89 -112 200 MB DIV 46 58 55 40 23 -4 24 -9 6 -12 -7 -41 -11 LAND (KM) 883 773 687 629 601 584 626 802 1029 1273 1540 1785 1970 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.4 24.1 24.9 25.6 26.8 27.8 28.4 28.8 29.3 30.0 31.1 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 147.0 148.6 150.2 151.7 153.2 156.5 160.3 163.7 166.8 169.6 172.4 174.6 175.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 17 16 15 13 13 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 13 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -21. -27. -29. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -2. -3. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -15. -18. -24. -28. -30. -34. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/18/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/18/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY