* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/18/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 92 95 99 105 105 106 104 105 105 103 98 V (KT) LAND 85 88 92 95 99 105 105 106 104 105 105 103 98 V (KT) LGE mod 85 88 91 93 96 101 104 103 99 95 93 89 83 SHEAR (KT) 4 7 10 9 7 12 14 11 19 11 14 6 12 SHEAR DIR 20 28 79 45 8 18 305 290 273 245 239 162 126 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.1 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 134 135 138 144 149 149 149 155 156 136 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 130 131 134 139 143 140 138 143 141 120 115 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -50.9 -51.5 -50.8 -51.2 -50.6 -50.8 -49.7 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 6 700-500 MB RH 64 64 60 58 60 61 59 64 60 63 55 56 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 21 21 23 25 22 25 24 27 29 30 30 850 MB ENV VOR 70 67 67 79 82 91 84 84 61 83 24 49 114 200 MB DIV 48 60 69 45 39 81 29 100 44 102 33 24 27 LAND (KM) 1198 1199 1199 1125 1067 971 750 654 725 946 1051 783 599 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.9 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.9 20.7 22.6 24.6 27.1 30.1 33.1 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 49.0 50.3 51.5 52.8 54.0 56.5 59.0 61.4 63.5 65.3 66.6 67.9 69.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 14 15 14 14 15 16 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 19 27 32 38 42 58 41 39 32 38 15 10 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -11. -13. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 1. 3. 2. 5. 6. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 20. 20. 21. 19. 20. 20. 18. 13. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/18/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/18/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY