* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/18/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 33 33 30 27 24 23 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 33 33 30 27 24 23 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 34 31 28 23 21 20 19 19 17 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 50 49 50 54 52 15 7 19 28 21 25 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 221 213 203 196 152 56 358 357 21 8 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.5 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.3 25.8 24.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 113 116 119 121 126 129 130 127 123 110 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -54.7 -54.6 -55.2 -55.8 -56.4 -56.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 59 61 57 52 51 54 49 56 58 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 12 13 12 13 12 14 12 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 26 17 3 -10 -27 -31 -48 -56 -73 -103 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 43 45 31 0 -11 12 -3 -11 -16 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 817 736 677 637 633 646 751 976 1192 1408 1743 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.3 25.1 25.8 26.4 27.9 28.9 30.3 31.6 32.7 34.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.1 149.7 151.3 152.8 154.3 158.0 160.6 163.4 165.4 167.6 170.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 15 17 15 13 12 11 13 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -14. -20. -25. -29. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. -2. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -25. -35. -38. -39. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/18/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/18/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY