* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/18/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 99 100 103 105 106 105 107 107 106 97 89 V (KT) LAND 95 97 99 100 103 105 106 105 107 107 106 97 89 V (KT) LGE mod 95 99 101 102 103 106 104 100 97 95 90 83 76 SHEAR (KT) 7 6 11 13 10 13 8 17 14 13 6 15 18 SHEAR DIR 73 40 2 353 8 299 288 271 253 238 198 127 168 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 29.2 29.1 27.8 27.4 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 138 141 144 147 149 149 157 155 136 131 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 132 133 135 139 142 141 139 144 140 120 114 96 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.0 -51.6 -50.8 -51.2 -50.3 -50.5 -49.8 -49.5 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 7 4 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 65 63 61 66 61 65 59 58 59 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 24 24 26 25 25 24 27 29 32 29 29 850 MB ENV VOR 73 82 80 81 85 70 71 53 74 28 23 16 69 200 MB DIV 66 72 67 64 81 48 106 73 100 75 39 39 54 LAND (KM) 1170 1096 1036 1007 980 743 631 721 931 1041 804 660 444 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.8 17.3 18.0 18.6 20.5 22.4 24.6 27.1 29.9 33.0 36.3 39.5 LONG(DEG W) 51.7 52.9 54.1 55.3 56.4 59.0 61.5 63.6 65.6 66.9 67.7 67.2 65.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 47 50 53 54 60 53 47 37 42 20 15 23 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 12. 12. 11. 2. -6. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/18/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/18/09 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY