* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/19/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 114 116 117 118 117 117 114 115 108 101 94 84 V (KT) LAND 110 114 116 117 118 117 117 114 115 108 101 94 84 V (KT) LGE mod 110 115 117 117 116 114 108 104 102 97 89 80 66 SHEAR (KT) 4 8 12 9 8 10 11 14 8 15 12 13 31 SHEAR DIR 25 1 352 2 300 307 260 265 219 228 80 179 210 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.2 28.5 27.4 26.2 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 142 145 147 149 149 154 157 146 132 119 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 138 140 142 142 139 143 144 130 116 104 76 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.7 -51.1 -51.1 -50.0 -49.7 -49.1 -49.5 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 7 5 1 700-500 MB RH 63 62 65 62 62 68 65 65 61 61 62 59 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 25 26 27 27 26 27 28 32 32 30 31 30 850 MB ENV VOR 81 80 84 85 81 72 58 64 61 10 23 78 109 200 MB DIV 63 76 65 86 89 64 105 53 55 43 93 37 18 LAND (KM) 1114 1048 1004 950 834 670 647 831 1061 886 725 463 200 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.9 19.7 21.7 23.5 25.9 28.7 31.8 35.2 38.7 42.2 LONG(DEG W) 52.8 54.2 55.5 56.7 57.9 60.4 62.8 64.8 66.4 67.4 67.9 66.6 63.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 18 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 49 52 54 66 76 43 43 38 31 23 15 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -10. -18. -25. -31. -36. -40. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 8. 9. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 4. 5. -2. -9. -16. -26. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/19/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/19/09 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY