* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/19/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 119 121 122 122 124 121 119 113 106 100 96 84 V (KT) LAND 115 119 121 122 122 124 121 119 113 106 100 96 84 V (KT) LGE mod 115 119 120 119 117 113 108 106 102 92 84 77 62 SHEAR (KT) 10 7 6 10 8 2 17 11 20 1 7 18 57 SHEAR DIR 327 354 355 271 273 309 260 209 242 157 158 180 218 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.2 28.9 27.6 27.5 24.3 18.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 145 147 149 149 151 157 152 133 133 104 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 141 142 143 141 141 146 136 117 116 92 74 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -50.6 -50.9 -51.2 -50.0 -50.6 -49.6 -49.4 -47.9 -48.6 -47.9 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 9 8 7 4 0 700-500 MB RH 63 64 59 61 59 66 63 66 59 66 66 58 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 28 29 29 29 32 33 33 35 36 37 40 39 850 MB ENV VOR 80 88 91 92 72 72 61 84 25 29 4 63 119 200 MB DIV 92 101 113 92 52 127 62 125 35 98 20 119 57 LAND (KM) 1052 1029 951 828 725 642 727 949 939 746 639 388 110 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.4 19.1 20.0 20.8 22.7 24.8 27.5 30.4 33.4 36.4 40.0 43.8 LONG(DEG W) 54.2 55.5 56.7 58.0 59.3 61.7 64.1 66.1 67.8 68.2 67.5 65.5 62.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 15 15 17 21 22 HEAT CONTENT 51 53 66 69 51 47 39 40 19 13 25 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. 0. 0. -1. -5. -12. -21. -29. -37. -42. -47. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -1. -1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. 7. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 10. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 7. 9. 6. 4. -2. -9. -15. -19. -31. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/19/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/19/09 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY