* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/19/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 33 35 37 42 41 35 29 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 33 35 37 42 41 35 29 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 30 30 30 32 32 29 26 22 18 16 SHEAR (KT) 53 37 23 14 7 12 21 25 22 24 12 8 24 SHEAR DIR 208 209 190 203 233 360 11 36 23 8 14 18 339 SST (C) 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.1 25.8 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.2 24.4 23.2 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 124 126 126 122 123 121 120 114 106 94 74 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -54.2 -54.8 -55.2 -55.9 -56.2 -56.5 -56.4 -56.3 -56.4 -56.0 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 5 5 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 51 53 50 53 53 59 48 48 49 56 55 55 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -53 -61 -58 -67 -36 -30 -38 -73 -81 -67 -71 -121 200 MB DIV 5 4 26 28 12 -7 -26 -21 -29 -12 -27 -30 -58 LAND (KM) 915 929 948 946 978 1108 1220 1346 1462 1621 1769 1971 2124 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.4 30.1 30.6 31.0 31.9 32.2 32.6 32.8 33.6 34.5 35.9 38.2 LONG(DEG W) 152.8 154.3 155.7 157.4 159.1 162.2 164.7 166.6 168.4 169.9 171.1 172.5 171.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 12 9 8 8 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 16 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -4. -9. -16. -19. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. 0. 2. 7. 6. 0. -6. -16. -25. -28. -33. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/19/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/19/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY