* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/19/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 119 119 121 123 120 118 113 106 102 92 75 V (KT) LAND 115 116 119 119 121 123 120 118 113 106 102 92 75 V (KT) LGE mod 115 115 115 114 113 110 105 103 99 91 83 70 55 SHEAR (KT) 8 3 7 6 6 6 10 11 10 9 14 40 65 SHEAR DIR 327 1 281 250 294 228 262 248 267 150 163 204 210 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.2 28.6 27.4 27.2 20.7 18.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 147 149 149 148 152 157 148 131 130 87 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 141 142 143 143 139 141 144 133 115 115 80 75 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -50.1 -50.3 -49.1 -49.2 -48.0 -48.7 -47.9 -45.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 58 61 58 62 63 62 59 56 63 61 43 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 29 28 29 31 34 36 36 37 40 40 38 850 MB ENV VOR 84 89 92 73 73 71 84 73 48 69 105 149 225 200 MB DIV 79 107 97 72 55 106 54 46 55 34 85 72 37 LAND (KM) 1015 929 803 698 623 612 768 962 830 653 496 216 40 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.6 21.5 23.4 25.4 28.0 31.0 34.3 37.7 41.7 46.1 LONG(DEG W) 55.6 56.9 58.2 59.5 60.8 63.3 65.5 67.2 68.7 68.9 67.8 64.5 59.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 14 15 16 16 17 20 26 29 HEAT CONTENT 54 69 75 51 46 44 44 40 23 11 12 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -4. -11. -21. -29. -37. -42. -48. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 2. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 4. 6. 8. 5. 3. -2. -9. -13. -23. -40. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/19/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/19/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY