* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/19/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 42 47 46 39 29 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 42 47 46 39 29 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 36 36 37 35 30 24 19 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 42 23 15 15 21 16 24 26 31 25 28 21 34 SHEAR DIR 206 202 221 266 286 328 1 23 17 10 28 343 8 SST (C) 25.7 25.9 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.1 24.9 24.4 24.1 23.1 22.2 20.5 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 124 125 123 121 114 111 104 101 91 83 67 63 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.4 -55.1 -55.7 -56.0 -56.4 -56.2 -56.6 -56.7 -56.8 -56.4 -56.2 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 50 53 54 59 50 49 46 54 53 51 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 8 6 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -79 -80 -64 -51 -37 -37 -52 -69 -39 -46 -75 -124 200 MB DIV 0 26 38 20 9 -9 -9 -14 -17 -24 -46 -56 -41 LAND (KM) 956 996 1056 1103 1166 1310 1424 1539 1591 1724 1835 1986 1646 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.6 31.5 32.1 32.7 33.8 34.3 34.9 35.1 36.1 37.1 38.8 41.6 LONG(DEG W) 154.2 155.7 157.1 158.4 159.7 162.0 164.4 165.9 166.7 167.5 167.8 168.6 166.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 14 13 12 10 9 5 4 6 7 11 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -12. -20. -26. -29. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 11. 4. -6. -18. -30. -38. -49. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/19/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/19/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY