* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/20/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 118 119 120 122 116 110 103 96 83 66 49 V (KT) LAND 115 115 118 119 120 122 116 110 103 96 76 46 30 V (KT) LGE mod 115 113 111 109 107 106 102 94 86 72 56 42 38 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 3 9 8 6 16 7 8 21 54 90 71 SHEAR DIR 244 245 287 233 253 257 273 181 194 218 239 239 242 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.2 28.8 27.3 27.1 18.4 17.7 11.6 10.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 151 157 151 131 129 81 80 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 140 140 141 144 136 116 115 76 76 71 71 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -49.6 -50.4 -50.1 -48.1 -48.6 -47.4 -47.7 -47.2 -46.5 -44.2 -43.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 5 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 59 62 58 56 63 59 66 66 65 51 35 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 32 34 32 34 35 36 36 35 38 38 37 37 850 MB ENV VOR 70 73 78 68 49 60 3 43 33 89 78 189 207 200 MB DIV 99 95 116 69 33 134 -5 129 24 114 96 40 35 LAND (KM) 709 655 642 682 760 974 888 663 452 124 23 333 1123 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 22.1 23.0 24.1 25.2 27.9 30.7 34.0 37.9 42.4 47.3 51.3 54.4 LONG(DEG W) 59.6 60.9 62.1 63.3 64.5 66.5 68.2 68.9 68.5 65.2 59.0 50.0 38.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 18 22 29 34 36 36 HEAT CONTENT 47 42 48 40 38 37 21 10 10 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -4. -11. -23. -33. -44. -52. -57. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 4. 7. 9. 6. -1. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -24. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 6. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 4. 5. 7. 1. -5. -12. -19. -32. -49. -66. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/20/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/20/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED