* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/20/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 107 110 112 118 110 103 99 89 73 53 37 V (KT) LAND 105 105 107 110 112 118 110 103 99 89 56 43 27 V (KT) LGE mod 105 102 100 99 99 99 96 89 78 61 44 44 38 SHEAR (KT) 6 5 3 10 5 2 9 6 12 20 63 94 76 SHEAR DIR 246 264 237 266 219 294 287 360 250 222 238 242 251 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 27.9 27.6 21.9 18.1 14.9 13.6 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 152 155 156 138 135 91 80 76 76 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 141 140 142 144 142 124 120 83 75 74 73 73 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -49.3 -50.1 -49.9 -49.7 -48.6 -48.6 -47.5 -48.2 -46.6 -46.2 -43.5 -43.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 54 62 62 67 66 65 58 41 35 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 34 34 35 34 39 34 34 36 33 32 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 69 80 73 45 50 28 4 22 29 74 59 178 224 200 MB DIV 101 145 96 19 46 97 36 118 53 87 14 41 72 LAND (KM) 646 639 670 768 869 1054 741 594 305 17 -73 781 1214 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 23.1 24.1 25.3 26.5 29.3 32.5 36.4 40.7 44.7 48.4 51.9 55.1 LONG(DEG W) 61.0 62.3 63.6 64.7 65.7 67.3 68.7 68.5 67.0 62.4 54.8 43.2 28.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 15 15 16 18 21 24 29 37 43 45 HEAT CONTENT 43 47 41 38 43 27 15 27 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -7. -17. -27. -38. -44. -49. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 10. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -21. -25. -30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 2. 1. 3. 1. -1. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 7. 13. 5. -2. -6. -16. -32. -52. -68. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/20/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/20/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY