* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/21/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 112 115 115 116 111 103 92 76 57 43 37 V (KT) LAND 110 110 112 115 115 116 111 103 92 65 52 38 32 V (KT) LGE mod 110 110 110 110 108 103 95 83 64 54 47 43 39 SHEAR (KT) 13 8 3 6 8 2 4 4 11 45 78 78 52 SHEAR DIR 202 252 273 273 215 238 89 190 201 227 241 244 223 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.1 27.9 27.6 22.7 18.6 15.5 14.6 13.2 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 157 157 155 138 135 95 81 76 77 75 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 146 143 140 123 120 86 76 73 74 73 74 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -49.7 -49.4 -49.3 -48.2 -48.8 -47.9 -47.4 -44.9 -44.0 -44.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 55 60 62 58 60 63 66 64 46 34 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 31 31 34 32 34 34 34 33 31 28 30 38 850 MB ENV VOR 70 49 44 33 3 -6 29 37 66 93 212 293 294 200 MB DIV 104 81 61 75 67 36 93 76 92 3 -5 19 47 LAND (KM) 683 797 898 1002 1010 750 589 337 78 -7 702 1393 433 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.6 26.9 28.3 29.6 32.5 36.5 40.5 44.3 47.5 50.2 52.5 54.4 LONG(DEG W) 63.8 64.9 65.9 66.8 67.6 68.6 68.4 66.1 61.7 54.1 43.6 30.8 16.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 15 15 17 21 23 28 34 40 42 43 HEAT CONTENT 41 39 43 36 22 15 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 16 CX,CY: -11/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -4. -13. -26. -38. -49. -55. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 6. 11. 14. 12. 6. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -20. -24. -29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 5. 6. 1. -7. -18. -34. -53. -67. -73. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/21/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/21/09 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY