* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/21/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 107 109 111 112 108 99 89 68 46 35 30 V (KT) LAND 105 105 107 109 111 112 108 99 89 64 42 32 26 V (KT) LGE mod 105 103 103 102 101 96 90 74 62 52 45 39 34 SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 6 5 8 2 9 41 83 90 78 43 SHEAR DIR 234 236 194 240 225 275 221 237 232 239 249 250 246 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.7 27.4 26.7 19.6 17.8 12.9 12.7 12.8 14.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 157 155 149 132 125 83 80 75 75 73 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 144 141 134 117 110 77 76 73 73 71 71 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -49.9 -49.4 -49.4 -48.7 -48.4 -47.7 -47.9 -46.8 -45.6 -44.4 -44.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 9 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 61 61 58 58 62 63 69 61 39 25 35 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 33 34 33 35 38 37 36 37 31 24 29 36 850 MB ENV VOR 35 33 34 7 -10 7 19 64 74 93 173 263 245 200 MB DIV 84 62 82 62 -6 109 46 93 47 13 3 18 28 LAND (KM) 786 890 985 1018 859 671 451 169 123 304 1227 983 373 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.8 28.1 29.5 30.9 34.3 38.2 42.2 46.0 49.1 51.5 53.8 55.9 LONG(DEG W) 64.9 65.9 66.8 67.6 68.4 68.7 67.7 64.4 58.3 48.9 36.4 25.0 14.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 16 16 19 21 26 32 38 39 34 31 HEAT CONTENT 40 43 37 23 23 11 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 2. -4. -12. -25. -37. -47. -53. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 9. 4. -3. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. -24. -29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 4. 3. 2. 3. -2. -7. -4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 3. -6. -16. -37. -59. -70. -75. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/21/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/21/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED