* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/21/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 102 105 107 106 99 86 69 48 34 19 17 V (KT) LAND 100 100 102 105 107 106 99 86 64 43 29 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 97 96 95 94 89 79 62 45 44 38 34 30 SHEAR (KT) 7 2 4 3 4 8 16 30 55 92 78 52 40 SHEAR DIR 229 299 13 55 247 269 213 233 250 263 281 271 230 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.6 27.7 27.5 21.9 18.4 14.5 14.5 12.7 14.4 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 156 148 135 134 91 81 76 77 74 71 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 141 134 121 118 83 76 74 74 72 68 64 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.0 -49.5 -49.3 -49.3 -48.1 -48.7 -48.0 -47.5 -44.8 -44.8 -44.2 -44.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 60 62 62 71 65 51 47 49 58 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 35 34 37 38 37 37 37 33 27 27 23 34 850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 11 -13 0 -6 36 53 31 142 191 206 269 200 MB DIV 63 84 73 7 39 110 30 65 10 0 26 17 72 LAND (KM) 902 1009 1032 872 731 604 305 31 4 895 1024 467 411 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 28.3 29.6 31.3 32.9 36.6 40.8 44.7 48.3 51.3 53.7 55.7 57.4 LONG(DEG W) 65.8 66.6 67.3 68.0 68.6 67.9 66.2 61.9 53.4 41.2 25.6 16.6 13.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 17 18 20 23 29 38 46 38 20 12 HEAT CONTENT 43 35 22 25 13 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 16 CX,CY: -9/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 1. -4. -14. -27. -37. -46. -51. -54. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 5. 0. -5. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -22. -27. -31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -6. -9. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 7. 6. -1. -14. -31. -52. -66. -81. -83. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/21/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/21/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY