* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 08/21/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 37 43 48 51 54 56 60 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 37 43 48 51 54 56 60 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 30 32 35 37 40 43 46 50 SHEAR (KT) 7 12 11 11 12 11 12 12 8 14 5 4 9 SHEAR DIR 66 72 71 81 79 102 81 100 75 91 86 94 132 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 145 142 139 138 138 136 136 134 136 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 62 61 57 60 55 51 51 54 52 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -7 -5 1 2 15 26 34 57 56 54 55 61 200 MB DIV 34 23 23 23 13 29 22 40 24 19 37 36 18 LAND (KM) 2423 2390 2296 2204 2112 1883 1659 1437 1192 972 791 629 531 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 132.4 133.3 134.1 135.0 135.8 137.9 140.0 142.1 144.5 146.7 148.7 150.6 152.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 34 36 37 38 41 15 13 12 16 11 13 11 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 35. 36. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 08/21/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 08/21/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY