* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/21/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 97 100 101 100 89 76 59 42 29 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 95 97 100 101 100 89 76 53 36 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 93 91 90 87 82 67 56 47 43 38 34 31 SHEAR (KT) 7 4 3 2 3 2 13 30 56 80 72 54 55 SHEAR DIR 219 288 291 24 16 200 242 231 246 260 271 261 248 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.5 27.7 27.3 25.9 18.0 17.0 13.2 12.3 13.7 14.3 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 146 135 131 117 80 79 75 75 74 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 139 131 120 115 105 75 75 73 73 71 68 65 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -49.8 -49.9 -49.7 -48.9 -48.5 -48.2 -48.4 -46.9 -45.4 -45.3 -46.6 -47.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 60 60 63 64 68 66 54 45 46 48 54 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 35 35 34 36 37 37 35 35 31 27 27 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 21 11 -18 -10 6 10 43 0 95 155 178 123 74 200 MB DIV 76 87 29 44 112 43 106 28 38 32 29 28 25 LAND (KM) 1044 1009 875 774 701 418 94 18 533 1418 695 328 120 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 30.2 31.7 33.4 35.0 38.9 43.7 47.4 50.1 52.6 55.0 57.0 58.6 LONG(DEG W) 66.6 67.1 67.6 67.9 68.2 67.1 63.3 56.4 46.0 33.9 20.6 12.0 7.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 17 18 24 29 34 38 40 33 20 15 HEAT CONTENT 33 19 24 14 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 17 CX,CY: -7/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -16. -27. -37. -45. -49. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 6. 2. -2. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -22. -26. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -8. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 6. 5. -6. -19. -36. -53. -66. -82. -95. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/21/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/21/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY