* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 08/21/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 47 51 52 53 55 55 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 47 51 52 53 55 55 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 40 42 43 45 47 49 51 52 SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 14 16 12 16 11 14 13 7 9 8 SHEAR DIR 65 83 70 81 85 87 71 107 68 89 91 162 121 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 144 142 138 135 135 135 134 133 133 137 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 59 60 56 52 49 48 49 49 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 0 4 9 25 28 49 57 68 63 73 68 200 MB DIV 30 31 26 8 15 30 7 14 10 10 33 7 30 LAND (KM) 2334 2243 2152 2056 1961 1759 1552 1325 1111 888 661 484 374 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.2 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 133.8 134.6 135.4 136.3 137.1 138.9 140.8 142.9 145.0 147.2 149.6 151.8 154.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 39 24 16 13 11 11 12 9 10 10 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 21. 22. 23. 25. 25. 26. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 08/21/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 08/21/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY