* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/22/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 90 92 93 89 78 63 47 32 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 89 90 92 93 89 78 60 43 29 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 87 85 83 81 74 60 45 45 40 34 30 28 SHEAR (KT) 10 1 3 4 0 10 24 47 81 76 70 53 32 SHEAR DIR 226 171 51 82 149 210 230 241 260 274 284 271 228 SST (C) 29.0 28.5 27.7 27.4 27.5 21.8 18.5 14.5 14.8 12.7 14.3 14.2 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 146 135 132 134 90 81 76 77 75 74 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 130 120 117 118 82 76 74 74 73 71 67 65 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -49.9 -49.6 -49.7 -49.0 -48.1 -46.3 -45.7 -47.1 -48.7 -47.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 58 62 65 68 73 66 56 49 47 52 49 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 34 33 33 34 34 34 33 30 28 27 24 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -12 -16 -8 -6 14 37 47 87 124 127 97 153 200 MB DIV 47 43 56 80 131 44 33 49 31 54 14 29 31 LAND (KM) 1006 876 767 731 571 277 34 24 972 1096 300 80 333 LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.8 33.3 35.2 37.0 41.0 44.9 48.1 50.8 53.3 55.7 58.5 61.5 LONG(DEG W) 67.1 67.6 68.0 67.9 67.7 65.5 61.1 52.7 39.9 26.6 13.5 6.6 5.0 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 19 20 24 29 38 43 41 31 18 15 HEAT CONTENT 19 24 13 10 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 18 CX,CY: -4/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -7. -18. -28. -36. -43. -46. -49. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 1. -3. -6. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. -23. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 3. -1. -12. -27. -43. -58. -72. -84. -91. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/22/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/22/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY