* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 08/22/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 46 51 53 55 58 59 59 59 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 46 51 53 55 58 59 59 59 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 41 44 46 48 49 51 54 57 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 15 15 14 17 15 17 13 6 7 9 SHEAR DIR 73 71 75 84 93 59 77 73 86 91 86 59 91 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 145 142 140 137 138 135 134 133 133 136 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 61 63 61 61 63 57 51 48 50 48 44 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -6 -6 -1 6 12 18 36 53 71 75 70 53 200 MB DIV 33 29 23 19 44 20 25 23 20 34 29 35 30 LAND (KM) 2259 2176 2093 2001 1909 1756 1575 1379 1179 1004 842 694 598 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.7 15.9 15.9 15.7 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 134.5 135.3 136.1 137.0 137.8 139.2 140.8 142.6 144.4 146.1 147.8 149.6 151.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 37 38 39 23 15 15 13 12 14 10 10 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 16. 21. 23. 25. 28. 29. 29. 29. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 08/22/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 08/22/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY