* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/22/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 90 92 91 85 76 59 41 26 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 89 90 92 91 85 76 56 38 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 88 85 84 81 66 57 49 43 37 32 30 DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 3 3 5 10 12 27 65 80 67 57 56 N/A SHEAR DIR 252 269 245 268 204 211 227 240 250 261 259 252 N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.4 27.5 27.2 24.2 18.0 17.0 13.0 12.5 12.9 14.2 13.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 132 133 130 103 79 79 74 74 73 72 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 117 118 115 92 75 75 72 72 70 69 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -49.5 -49.7 -50.3 -50.1 -49.7 -48.2 -47.5 -47.1 -48.0 -48.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 61 65 68 71 67 57 51 45 44 47 54 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 32 31 33 34 32 34 33 28 24 21 13 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -21 7 0 12 41 22 63 88 92 118 55 N/A 200 MB DIV 34 82 89 112 77 81 89 45 41 21 9 9 N/A LAND (KM) 798 708 646 489 336 101 39 504 1364 908 462 243 N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 34.0 35.7 37.7 39.7 43.6 47.2 49.8 51.9 54.1 56.7 59.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.2 68.4 68.6 68.0 67.4 63.5 56.3 46.3 34.5 23.9 15.4 8.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 19 21 22 27 33 37 36 30 25 21 N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 11 22 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 19 CX,CY: -5/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -4. -14. -24. -34. -41. -48. -51. -53. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -16. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 1. -5. -14. -31. -49. -64. -80. -92. -99. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/22/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/22/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY